Exit Plans for Decade-Spanning Forecasts
Ten years is a long time to be wrong. And if you're building a model that reaches that far, you will be wrong— eventually. The question is whether you'll notice in time to do something about it. Most long-horizon forecasting efforts fail not because the math is shaky, but because nobody built an exit. They treat the model like a monument. It stands, it erodes, and no one has the authority to tear it down. This piece is about the part everyone skips: the off-ramp. Why Most Forecasts Need an Exit Plan (and What Breaks Without One) The silent cost of a forecast that never gets questioned A long-horizon forecast is a decision you make today and pay for tomorrow. Without an exit plan, it becomes a quietly compounding liability—one that siphons credibility from your team and warps the choices built on top of it.